this post was submitted on 23 Sep 2024
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That is a truly impressive amount of hardware they’ve wasted on an absolutely fucking pointless conflict.
But we can keep going if the ruskies want to play that game.
It's a lot, but not nearly enough to break Russian capabilities. If it's one thing they know how to do, it's throwing materiel and warm bodies at a conflict till the opponent is overwhelmed. In the battle of Kursk in WW2, the sovjets lost upwards of 6000 tanks and 800000 soldiers (of which 250000 were KIA) in the span of six weeks.
Russia will not be defeated militarily, but with western support Ukraine can hold on long enough to make Putin's political situation so unstable that pulling out is the best option, or he gets coup'd. And Ukraine is holding on well, for now. Slava Ukraini!
Russia cannot build that many tanks anymore. They could expand their industry, but there is a cost to that they they don't want to pay.
They've been doing that for over a year and I'm confident that they've hit their limit. Their current unemployment rate is estimated at 3.8%, salaries are skyrocketing as industries compete with each other for available workers, and inflation is out of control. Those are all strong indicators that their labor pool has turned into a puddle.
The only way they could expand any further is to start using migrant labor and who the hell, aside from North Koreans and maybe some Chinese, are going to migrate into Russia right now? Especially in sufficient numbers to make any kind of a difference.