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There is a known strategy called EEE (Embrace, extend, and extinguish).
First, they embrace the open web. Millions of people who never would've joined the Fediverse (and, probably, don't even know what the Fediverse is) flock to Threads and start to interact with us.
Then, they extend the open web, adding features to Threads that aren't compatible with our servers. People on Threads don't understand what's wrong with our server (even though it's Threads that's the source of incompatibility).
Finally, they decide they're "having trouble maintaining compatibility with third party servers" and start to break off from us, leaving us with no way to interact with our new friends. Unless, of course, we make a free Threads account...
Google Talk is perhaps the most relevant example of this. Here's more details.
Sound to me like the worst case scenario is that some of the users gained in the debacle is also lost afterwards. Why would the users that joined the fediverse with a purpose leave for threads in the breakup?
The EEE strategy would lead to the big corporate entity being the way most people interact. New users would go there instead of other platforms to engage. In time, a lot of the users and content would be on the corporate platform because it's the one that has the most reach, marketing, etc. so defederation would be a big hit.
And you don't need to look too far to see it now. The majority of people posting on the threadiverse come from lemmy. world and kbin.social. Why? Because they were already the established "big instances" and they went there.
The average user will just go to wherever is the biggest and that will be threads. And when they have the majority of new take up and most people on the other side have the majority of their contacts inside the threads world, then they don't need us any more.
This is just the way a corporation operates. Source: I work at a multinational corporation.
Yeah lemmy.world *already" consists of an order of magnitude more users than the next instance to it. Imagine if the lemmy.world admins had shareholders to please who suddenly start asking "why are you giving away all these ActivityPub activities for free???"