this post was submitted on 20 Jun 2023
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I always doubt headlines with % in and no numbers
That's not a lot.
True, although just having that number is also not that relevant, since this probably will take the effect of an exponential function and the numbers will likely increase rapidly until getting to a certain top. $200 billion might not be much but as the first point in a function of such rapid growth it is relevant.
Another relevant thing to keep in mind is that the more relevant part is that Russia is finding the customers it lost when it left the EU. India, China and other countries are filling that gap which means they can keep selling their goods, and this is not good for the EU because forcibly the prices of such goods will be more expensive now.
That's one way to spin losing access to the two largest, richest markets in the world. It did not end up well for them the last time the iron curtains were drawn
I'm not sure being dependent on China is good for Russia either They're basically now just the mining and resource supplier with no competition to up whatever price China wants to pay them.
If those markets demostrate such a level of hostility compared to China, is it worth it?
I don't think there is a clean comparison here since the historical context is significantly different. The PRC is much more developed and stable than the USSR or 50s era PRC was. History also would have turned out much differently if the USSR and PRC didn't split in the 60s. In my opinion that was what really put them on the path to their economic troubles in the 80s, obviously the Iron Curtain was probably the larger factor overall, but that is to be expected in the political climate of the time.
For the moment they are dependent on China, but China has a vested interest in fostering that relationship rather than exploiting it, I would say. They are much stronger together than divided, and they surely can both recognize this from recent history.
Indeed, China opts for partnership in it's international relations. Very different dynamic to the what the west offers.