this post was submitted on 12 Feb 2022
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Who told you Ukraine is about to be invaded by Russia?
your comment is clearly formulated in a way so that my reply to it should give my reasons why i believe russia is likely to invade ukraine, which isn't bad in any way of course (formulation, not invasion), but, i'm afraid there's not much i can offer besides the existing satellite pictures, convoy footage, articles and other news coverage, intelligence of other countries etc, which you no doubt have already seen
don't get me wrong, i, more than anyone would like this whole thing to turn out to be a too-far-taken negotiating tactic for russia's demands to stop expansion of nato, bc i have ukranian friends who are likely to get drafted, some of my closest friends in russia were at risk of being drafted even before this whole thing started, i myself could get drafted in the event of a war
i would be really happy to be able to look back at this comment in a year and laugh at how ridicululous this whole thing was, but, one thing we've learned is that we'll never fail to be surprised by the kind of fucked up shit a crazy nationalistic autocrat with zero oversight catering to a nationalistic population can do...
First, let's establish some context here. What Russia is rightly concerned about is the fact that NATO has been relentlessly expanding to the east. They've now given NATO an ultimatum that it has to roll back and comply with the original security guarantees that were given after USSR dissolved. The threat to Russia is real and should not be understated. NATO being able to put nukes in Ukraine would mean that they could reach Moscow in five minutes. This is a red line for Russia. All the NATO members have already stated that there is no prospects of Ukraine joining NATO or EU in the foreseeable future. This precludes any reason for Russia to act.
Russia has also never once said that it plans to invade Ukraine. The troops you're talking about are stationed in their barracks. Likewise, France, Germany, and even Ukraine are saying that there is no Russian invasion happening.
So far, the only countries insisting that there is some imminent invasion are US and UK. And the country that's been most damaged by these claims is Ukraine since all the investors are now pulling out leading to the economy crashing. This is the primary reason Ukrainian government has now broken with the US narrative.
Russia is achieving its goals without any need to invade Ukraine. Europe has absolutely no interest in having a full out war in Ukraine, and it's also heavily dependent on Russian gas and oil meaning that EU has little appetite to try and sanction Russia. On the other hand, US appears to be pushing for conflict as a distraction from the disastrous domestic policy and because accepting Russian demands would be seen as weakness. This is already driving a serious wedge within NATO. Russia will continue to apply pressure by doing military exercises within its borders, and negotiating with western powers. France, Italy, and Germany are already having direct talks with Russia and this is the most likely path towards resolving the issue.
Russia invading Ukraine would be counter to their goals as it would actually help unite NATO against them. There is no conceivable benefit to Russia from fighting a war in Ukraine. It's also worth noting that Russian media hasn't talked about any war, and typically countries prepare their public for a war when they're planning on having one.
The only scenario Russia has stated that it would engage militarily in Ukraine would be if Ukraine invaded Donbas. Ukraine has been ignoring its Minsk agreement commitments failing to grant autonomy to Donetsk and Kuhansk, and has been engaging in committing war crimes in these regions by attacking water supply and civilian targets.
I am curious though, if Russia says they aren't going to invade Ukraine, then why are they doing this massive military build up? Like what is the point? If the US/NATO refuse to cooperate with Russian demands... then what? Nothing? Do they just stay there?
As far as I know, NATO and USA has been and still hiring mercenaries to mess up and make conflicts near Russia frontiers. USA is the country that has been in war more than the 95% of the existence, did criminal wars and a war fanatic. I doubt Russia will use the force to invade Ukraine, makes no sense, instead war/force they would go for pro-russians politics on Ukraine using "democracy" rules.
Could you cite this? A quick search shows that Russia has leveled that accusation, but Russia often lies (remember the "little green men"?)
There really isn't any massive military build up that I'm aware of. Russia has simply been conducting military exercises, and the point of these exercises is to put pressure on NATO. What Russia is saying is that if there was a serious consideration to admit Ukraine to NATO, then that would be a cause of them to attack Ukraine. This is a game of chicken Russia and NATO are playing, and that Russia is currently winning.
I think who is winning is something neither you or I know enough classified intelligence to make definitive statements on. What we have been fed is propaganda from both sides. My other question is, if Russia wants a buffer between NATO countries, then wouldn't invading Ukraine put Russian borders right up against NATO borders (Romania, Hungry, etc.)? I'm not seeing the logic in it.
It's pretty clear that Russia is in a much better position than NATO here. Europe depends on Russia for around 40% of its energy, and there is no credible alternative to that. Russia also has a far bigger military force that it would be able to deploy than NATO. Russia has also become sanction proof, even financial times admits this now. On top of that, Russia is also allied with China creating a huge economic bloc that Europe is entirely dependent on. Europe already does more trade with China than US at this point. European leaders clearly understand this, hence why there are direct negotiations are now happening between Russia, France, and Germany.
And again, Russia has no interest in invading Ukraine. They want Ukraine to be a neutral country the way it was before NATO did a couple revolution there.