Future energy demand does not need new fossil fuels, study says
Energy groups did not need to develop any new oil, gas and coal projects to meet future demand, an academic paper says, at a time when rhetoric over the role of fossil fuel companies in addressing climate change is escalating.
Researchers from University College London and the International Institute for Sustainable Development studied projected future global demand for oil and gas production, and for coal- and gas-fired power generation, under a range of scenarios that limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
In all of the scenarios, which are all taken from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report, existing fossil fuel capacity is enough to meet the world’s energy demands, it concludes.
The study is the first peer-reviewed paper published in a scientific journal to argue that no more fossil fuel projects are needed as renewable energy sources take up the demand, and expands on the findings produced in 2021 by the International Energy Agency.
The IEA said energy groups must stop all new oil and gas exploration projects if the world was to reach net zero emissions by 2050, and limit global warming to 1.5C degrees.
Greg Muttitt, a senior associate at IISD, said the research drew on “a large range of scientific evidence . . . But its message to governments and fossil fuel companies is very simple: There is no room for new fossil fuel projects in a 1.5°C-aligned world.”
“Achieving the Paris Agreement goals means governments need to stop issuing permits for new fossil fuel exploration, production or power- generation projects,” said Muttitt.
Almost 200 countries agreed to limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels as part of the Paris Agreement in 2015, with many countries setting targets to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
The oil and gas industry has repeatedly pushed back against the IEA, including its forecast that demand for fossil fuels will peak before 2030.
“I don’t think they’re remotely right,” the chief executive of oil producer Chevron told the Financial Times last October. “You can build scenarios, but we live in the real world, and have to allocate capital to meet real world demands.”
Last December, countries reached an agreement as part of the UN’s COP28 climate summit to transition away from fossil fuels in an attempt to reach global net zero emissions by 2050.
The text asks all countries to set “ambitious” emissions targets over the next two years that take into account their fossil fuel use, in an effort to limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. The rise in temperature is at least 1.1C.
A cut in greenhouse gas emissions by about half by 2030 is required to limit warming, with the burning of fossils fuels being the biggest contributor. However, according to scientists at Nasa, emissions from fossil fuel are still rising. Emissions rose 1.1 per cent in 2023 compared with 2022.
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