this post was submitted on 04 Jul 2023
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Nate Silver was singing a different tune, though. I remember an interview he gave a month out from the election where he noted significant softness in support for Clinton. There were also a lot of undecideds who might swing elections in key states. That is, of course, exactly what happened. When the Comey letter was leaked by Congress, it likely cost Clinton the election. Her poll numbers dropped from +7% to +3%, well within the advantage that the Electoral College gives to Republicans.
On Election Day, the 538 model was about 3:1 in favor of Clinton. That sounds highly in favor of Clinton, and it is. But it still leaves plenty of room for a Trump win. And lo and behold, she lost.
One other thing polls didn't really capture was voter enthusiasm or maybe not enough people was paying attention to it. Just because you answered Hilary when asked who would you vote for, it didn't mean you went out on Election day to vote. A combination of lack of enthusiasm for Hilary, coupled with news constantly reporting that it will be a landslide kept many Democrat voters home.
I believe that's why there's such a huge push for "get out the vote" campaigns in 2020 by the Democrats. Generally, the more people voting means better chances for a Democrat win, given general (non-electoral) election results.
That's interesting, I did not think the letter had that big of an impact.
For me it was Bernie. I remember a lot of us on Reddit were all about Bernie.
Iirc, Bernie had a lot of steam and it seemed like again Clinton was going to be pushed aside for a grass-roots candidate (just like with Barak years earlier).
And Bernie said he was not going to give up the race, because even if he didn't win the votes he could still be voted in at the national convention.
And as the DNC neared, things were looking great. Clinton was giving paid speeches to wall street and Bernie was tearing her whole campaign apart because he was saying, give money back to people and she was saying keep things the way they were.
And then, among mounting pressure, two weeks before the convention he concieded out of nowhere. At least that's what it seemed like to us.
Then emails leaked that showed the Democratic Party had colluded with Clinton to get Bernie out of the race!
We couldn't believe it. We were devestated. So some people went to the DNC and were making a big stir, demanding that Bernie get back on the ballot.
And it all came to a waterfall moment when Sarah Silverman was on stage. And people were chanting Bernie and she lost it and told everybody to shut up and said the Bernie supporters were stupid.
And that was it. The only thing that came out of it was somebody got fired, but there was no regard or representation for us in the Democratic Party anymore.
They didn't care about what we wanted, and they were just as crooked as they had always told us the Republicans were.
For me it was a massive dissolutionment, and drove me to Trump. Since he was saying we need to take our economy back from the 1%.