this post was submitted on 16 Oct 2023
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Probably the same chance for 2024 with el nino
2025 isn't looking that great either.
The history of temperature rise has not been monotonic. So I'd expect a period of a few years where we don't set a new record.
Yes but that doesn't mean we've reached the current peak yet.
Exactly, don't forget that climate change goes extreme in both directions, so we may very well face the coldest year on record too.
Basically no chance of that happening. Temperatures are rising, just with a bit of noise:
Monotonic would mean that each year is strictly warmer than the last one, but the noise is big enough that we sometimes get a few slightly less warm years before the next record.
The bigger picture looks like this:
The scary thing about your first graph is that it is missing the current year, where the line will precisely hit the top right corner.
I feel like not enough people realize how unprecedented this year was. It took 40 years of global warming to get from +0.3 to +0.9 and now we're making an equally big jump in 1 year.